ETH open contracts reached a record high of 8.7 billion USD! The activity in the derivatives market has surged, is Ethereum gearing up to challenge 4000 USD?

Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at $3,667, having risen 4% in the past 24 hours, indicating a resurgence of market interest. Despite a 3.6% decline last week, it has still recorded a strong increase of 46% over the past month. The current price is fluctuating within the range of $3,380 to $3,874. A key signal is that the open interest (OI) of mainstream CEX ETH futures has reached a historical high of $8.7 billion, more than three times the peak during the bull run in 2021, but the funding rate remains neutral, indicating that the surge in leveraged holdings has not yet triggered overheating. The technical outlook shows an overall upward trend, and if it can maintain above $3,600 and break through $3,875, there is potential for a push towards the $4,000 mark.

Price rebound and market interest resurgence As of the time of writing, the trading price of Ethereum (ETH) is $3,667, having risen 4% in the past 24 hours, indicating a recovery in market interest after a sharp fall earlier this week.

Despite a 3.6% price drop over the past week, ETH has still achieved a significant rise of 46% over the past month, showing strong overall momentum. The price has fluctuated between $3,380 and $3,874 over the past week, indicating a consolidation phase after the recent pump.

Mainstream CEX Open Interest Hits All-Time High According to an analysis by CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest on August 4, Ethereum's Open Interest (OI) on mainstream CEX has reached a record $8.7 billion. This figure is more than three times the peak during the 2021 bull run (approximately $2.5 billion).

It is worth noting that the current ETH price is close to the peak period of 2021, but the OI peak at that time was only about $2.5 billion. This highlights:

• Leverage and Speculative Positions Surge: Leverage and speculative positions have significantly increased during the current rise.
• Funding rate neutral: Despite OI reaching a new high, the funding rates remain neutral, indicating that market sentiment is not overly bullish or bearish. This leaves room for further growth in positions without immediately triggering a significant pullback.

This "silent accumulation" is also supported by trading volume. In the past 24 hours, ETH spot trading volume has increased by nearly 45%, exceeding $28 billion. Coinglass data shows that, alongside the increase in derivative activity, the total open contracts across all exchanges have risen to $48.26 billion. These indicators point to a growing market participation, driven not by panic or speculation, but by considered position placements.

Technical Analysis: Upward trend is solid, but there are short-term concerns From a technical perspective, Ethereum is still in a strong upward trend overall, with the price movement maintained above key moving averages (such as the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day estimated moving averages). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the neutral zone, indicating that there is still significant upward potential before the market enters an overbought condition.

However, short-term indicators also show some cautious signals:

• Momentum and MACD: Showing mild bearish signs, indicating that if buying pressure weakens, the price may experience a slowdown.
• Bollinger Bands: Show that the ETH price has not yet entered the overbought zone. If demand rebounds, there is still potential for further price rise.

Key Price Levels and Long/Short Paths

• Bullish Path: ETH needs to hold steady at the $3,600 support and effectively break through the $3,875 resistance level. If achieved, with a reasonable increase in leveraged holdings (not overly risky), the price is expected to test the psychological level of $4,000.
• Bearish Risk: If market momentum weakens and the price breaks below the key support at $3,380, it may trigger a pullback, targeting the 3,100-3,200 dollar range.

Currently, the overall trend remains constructive, with strong support maintained below.

Conclusion: Ethereum is currently in a critical technical consolidation phase. The derivatives market's open interest has reached an all-time high while the funding rate remains neutral, indicating that large funds are 'silently accumulating' to build momentum for future market movements. The overall technical outlook is bullish, but the weakening short-term momentum indicators suggest caution against potential pullback risks. $3,600 is a recent dividing line for bulls and bears; if effectively maintained, it may challenge $3,875 or even $4,000, relying on the high activity in the derivatives market; conversely, if it falls below $3,380, it could trigger a deeper adjustment. Traders need to closely monitor changes in volume and the defense of key price levels.