Macroeconomic Weekly Report: Divergence in Market Expectations, Mixed Economic Data, Trend Still Unclear

1. Macroeconomic Review of This Week

1. Market Overview

This week, market sentiment remains depressed. The S&P 500 index of the US stock market has fallen below the 200-day moving average, triggering CTA strategy sell-offs, but the selling wave is nearing its end. The VIX index remains above 20 at a high level, and the Put/Call ratio has risen, reflecting significant market panic.

In the cryptocurrency market, despite positive news stimulating interest, the response has been tepid. On one hand, the details of the policy were not as expected, and on the other hand, the overall market liquidity is poor due to the pullback in major risk assets.

2. Economic Data Analysis

In terms of the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index has fallen below the threshold, and the employment index is below expectations, indicating that manufacturers are being cautious in production and hiring. The non-manufacturing PMI, however, has exceeded expectations, suggesting that the service sector remains relatively robust, although the growth rate has slowed.

In terms of GDP forecasts, the first quarter prediction has been revised down to -2.4%, mainly due to the drag from net exports, while consumer spending remains stable.

Employment data shows divergence, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, new jobs falling below expectations, and limited wage growth. Data indicates that the overall job market is weakening, but there has not been a significant deterioration.

3. Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that caution will be maintained until tariff policies become clear. He reiterated the 2% inflation target, stating that a short-term rise in inflation will not lead to an interest rate increase. If employment continues to slow, the possibility of a rate cut may increase.

In terms of liquidity, the Federal Reserve's broad liquidity has marginally improved, but the extent is limited.

In the interest rate market, short-term financing rates have fallen, with the market betting on future interest rate cuts. The yield on 10-year government bonds has turned upwards, indicating a easing of recession expectations.

2. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week

The current market is still in the stage of expected speculation, and the trend has not yet become clear. Institutional funds tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach, making it difficult to form a clear direction in the short term.

It is recommended to pay attention to the micro changes in economic data from March to April. Factors such as tariffs, government layoffs, and interest rates have lagging effects, and trend confirmation requires more data support.

One should not be overly pessimistic; the economy has not significantly deteriorated. Investors should manage their positions well, maintain a balance between offense and defense, and wait for clearer trend signals.

Next week, pay attention to key data such as CPI, PPI, and consumer confidence index to assess changes in inflation and consumption trends.