In the Crypto Assets market, investors often fall into the trap of analyzing from a single dimension. Some focus on technical indicators, some follow market sentiment, and others adhere to cyclical theories. The traditional view holds that the second year after Bitcoin Halving usually marks the end of a bull run, but this oversimplified judgment may overlook the more complex realities of the market.

Let's review the bull run of 2021, which was driven not only by the Bitcoin Halving cycle but also supported by a favorable macro environment. At that time, the Federal Reserve stimulated the market through interest rate cuts and massive liquidity injections. However, as inflation soared to a 40-year high by the end of 2021 and the unemployment rate rapidly decreased, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike signals indicated the arrival of the tightening cycle in 2022, which almost coincided with the end of the bull run.

Looking ahead to 2025, we are facing a situation that is completely different from that of 2021. While some predict a bear market based on the Halving cycle, this prediction overlooks significant changes in the macro environment. In contrast to the interest rate hike expectations at the end of 2021, 2025 is likely to be in the middle of a rate cut cycle. The Federal Reserve's forecasts for interest rate trends over the next two years have been continuously lowered, and the likelihood of rate hikes is low at least until 2026. This means that the pressure of liquidity tightening is temporarily alleviated, and the market continues to benefit from relatively loose monetary policy.

However, investors need to be aware that the market environment in 2025 may be more complex than it appears on the surface. While loose monetary policy may support the Crypto Assets market, other factors such as the regulatory environment, technological developments, and global economic conditions will also play important roles. Therefore, when formulating strategies, investors need to take multiple factors into account rather than relying solely on a single cycle theory.

In this complex environment, diversification of investments, continuous learning, and maintaining flexibility will become key investment strategies. Following projects with strong fundamentals and innovative potential while closely monitoring global economic indicators and policy changes may be important ways to achieve success in the Crypto Assets market in 2025.