Price Overview and Short-Term Volatility

Image:https://www.gate.com/trade/DOGE_USDT

As of May 21, 2025, the DOGE price is approximately $0.227, with an intraday increase of 0.32%. Looking at the trend of the past two weeks, DOGE once broke through the key level of $0.25, but failed to stabilize above it, followed by a pullback. The short-term support is at $0.222, if broken, it may seek support at $0.218; on the contrary, if it can break through $0.229 and trade with significant volume, it will once again challenge the levels of $0.236 and even $0.25.

The recent pullback of DOGE is more of a technical consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The current price range is a critical period for bulls to build an “upward continuation platform”, and investors need to closely monitor changes in market momentum.

Technical breakthrough and the establishment of long-term trends

From a technical chart perspective, DOGE successfully broke through the downtrend line since the beginning of 2025 in mid-May. This trend line had previously suppressed prices at levels such as 0.19 and 0.16, forming strong resistance. This effective breakthrough, combined with increased trading volume, constitutes an important signal of trend reversal.

In addition, the Ichimoku cloud chart shows that DOGE has stood on the ‘cloud layer’, with the green leading line (Span A) crossing above the red leading line (Span B), forming a ‘bullish cloud band’, which means that the support area has been built from below, providing support for the price. At the same time, the Fibonacci extension shows $0.69 and $0.81 as the medium-term target prices, while the long-term target points to the long-awaited $1 for investors.

Explosive growth of on-chain data: influx of real users

On-chain data also provides strong evidence. Since early May, the number of new Dogecoin wallet addresses has increased by over 100% in one week, active wallets have grown by 110%, and the number of zero-balance addresses has increased by 154%. These changes indicate that market participants are rapidly increasing, especially the return of retail investors or the influx of new participants, providing a foundation for the bullish market.

In response, the open interest of DOGE’s futures contracts surged from $989 million to $1.62 billion in a short period of time. This indicator experienced fluctuations between February and April 2025, during which the futures positions and spot prices were highly synchronized. Today, despite a slight pullback in price, the open interest continues to grow, indicating market confidence in future trends.

ETF advancement and macro catalysts

The market’s expectations for cryptocurrency ETFs have also brought new speculative potential to DOGE. In May 2025, the SEC delayed its decision on the approval of the DOGE spot ETF submitted by Grayscale and 21Shares. However, analysts generally believe that this ‘delay rather than rejection’ approach may pave the way for subsequent approval.

If the DOGE ETF can be approved within the year, this will greatly enhance its acceptance among mainstream investors and bring significant potential for capital inflows. Considering the historical price surge after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the concept of DOGE ETF is very likely to become a key catalyst for breaking through $1.

Market Views and Price Predictions

Different analysis institutions have divergent price predictions for DOGE in 2025:

• Conservatives (such as Changelly) predict an average price of around $0.236, believing that the market is still dominated by fluctuations;
• Neutral parties (such as InvestingHaven) set the target price at 0.78 to 1.11 US dollars, believing that breaking through 1 US dollar is a reasonable expectation as ETFs, macroeconomics, and community consensus strengthen.
• Even extremists predict that DOGE could reach $1.58 in extreme market sentiment.

These predictions, although varying, unanimously consider the range of $0.69 to $0.81 to be a reasonable mid-term resistance zone.

Risk reminder and investment advice

Despite the optimistic market sentiment, investors still need to be cautious of the following risks:

1. Technical false breakout: if the trading volume is insufficient or the chasing market is overheated, the trend line may still fall back after the breakout;
2. On-chain data abnormality: the sudden increase of zero-balance addresses may be affected by bots or ‘chain brushing’ behavior, and it is necessary to distinguish the growth of real users.
3. Macroeconomic variables interference: Fed policy, new regulations on crypto supervision, global market volatility, and other factors may all affect market trends.

Therefore, investors should remain rational when laying out DOGE, adopt a phased investment strategy, set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit levels, and continue to monitor changes in ETF approvals and on-chain activity.